The AI Triangle 2027
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Ten predictions for 2027, tracked

Each call from Chapter 13 of The AI Triangle 2027 has a confidence level, a test anyone can check and a date when it resolves. We update this page as the evidence comes in, and the 2028 edition grades every call in public.

Last checked: The ten confidence levels add up to 7.1, so about 7 of 10 should come true if they are well calibrated.

1

More than half of large companies scale AI agents

Open
60%

GlobalResolves by

The test
In McKinsey's 2027 state-of-AI survey, more than 50% of companies with revenue above $1 billion say they are scaling AI agents in at least one function. 2026: 40%.
What to watch
KPMG's quarterly AI Pulse: the share of companies with agents in real operations, not pilots.
2

The best open-weight model in the world is still Chinese

Open
75%

ChinaResolves by

The test
On 31 December 2027, the highest-scoring open-weight model on Artificial Analysis's Intelligence Index comes from a Chinese developer.
What to watch
The next flagship releases from DeepSeek and Alibaba, and whether their licences stay open.
3

China does not yet train a top-10 model mainly on its own chips

Open
60%

ChinaResolves by

The test
No Chinese developer releases a model that is in the Intelligence Index top ten within 30 days and that the developer itself says was trained mainly on Chinese chips.
What to watch
Whether Huawei's Ascend 960DT ships on time in early 2027, and what DeepSeek says about how its next flagship was trained.
4

SK hynix and TSMC each grow revenue 20%+

Open
80%

KoreaResolves by

The test
For January–September 2027 against the same months of 2026, SK hynix's revenue (in won) and TSMC's (in NT dollars) are each at least 20% higher.
What to watch
TSMC's monthly revenue, published around the 10th; SK hynix's and Samsung's quarterly results in late January, April, July and October.
5

US Big Tech's AI spending rises 30%+ despite the backlash

Open
80%

USResolves by

The test
Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Microsoft's combined capital spending in the first three quarters of 2027 is at least 30% above the same period of 2026.
What to watch
First-quarter results in late April 2027, when each company updates its full-year plan.
6

50,000+ humanoid robots shipped in the first half

Open
60%

GlobalResolves by

The test
Counterpoint Research counts at least 50,000 humanoid robots shipped worldwide in the first half of 2027, more than double its count for the first half of 2026.
What to watch
Not just the count but the use: whether the share going to factories rises above a fifth (13% in early 2026).
7

Fewer than half of companies see any profit from AI

Open
75%

GlobalResolves by

The test
In McKinsey's 2027 survey, fewer than half of respondents say AI contributes anything to their operating profit. 2026: 37%.
What to watch
Results from listed AI labs and cloud firms that separate AI revenue, and companies setting AI budgets per employee.
8

The first rung of the career ladder stays broken

Open
70%

GlobalResolves by

The test
Stanford's last "canaries" update of 2027 shows employment of 22–25-year-olds in the most AI-exposed US jobs at least 20% below its expected level. August 2026: about 19%.
What to watch
Graduate hiring for the class of 2027 in the US, China and Korea, and Korea's monthly youth employment.
9

Korea's AI Basic Act issues no fines in 2027

Open
65%

KoreaResolves by

The test
No company is fined under Korea's AI Basic Act during 2027, according to the Ministry of Science and ICT's own announcements.
What to watch
The ministry's decision in January 2027 on whether to extend the grace period.
10

Korea's best model still trails China's best open model

Open
85%

KoreaResolves by

The test
On 31 December 2027, the best Korean-built model on the Intelligence Index scores below the best Chinese open-weight model.
What to watch
The national-team final, provisionally in February 2027, and whether the winning models are released openly and used.
Bonus call

The labs defend their margins: OpenAI's 2027 gross margin stays below 50%

Open
65%

USResolves by

The test
OpenAI's 2027 gross margin is below 50%, in its own published accounts or, if not yet listed, in credible reports of its results. Outside the ten; graded the same way.
What to watch
OpenAI's listing documents, and whether other labs follow Google's price rises or Anthropic's price cut.

The reasoning behind every call

Chapter 13 sets out the evidence for each prediction, what would prove it wrong and the five smaller calls we left out of the ten.

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